When do you think AI will be able to write an operating system?
With recent advancements in AI technologies such as Code Interpreter and LongNet, it seems that we are getting closer to a point where AI can write any software, including an operating system. Surprisingly, predictions from platforms like Metaculus suggest that this could become a reality as early as 2029 [^1]. The combination of GPT-5, access to factual information through search, the ability to understand and keep track of vast amounts of code with LongNet, and the ability to debug and refine the code until it achieves the desired outcome with Code Interpreter, could enable AI to achieve tasks previously thought unimaginable by a single entity.
It would be interesting to explore alternative methods of assessing this progress, such as analyzing the exponential growth of GitHub issues opened versus solved over time, to determine if there is an expected convergence in the near future.